Misery Index

This commentary comes from a “We Beat the Street” commentary, an Investment Strategy company, via KITCO.   The author is Roger Wiegand, who I’ve also never heard of before and don’t know too much about, other than his biography on We Beat the Street and a bio on IIC.  But , lets take a gander into his crystal ball, shall we? [Hat Tip to Nightblogger]

Our new president is determined to hand out $860 Billion to One Trillion dollars in a Herculean effort to literally buy a new economic recovery.  While some of his ideas are noble indeed the overall plan will have little effect and Great Depression II shall take hold in 2009 with crashing stock markets in May and September-October 2009.  We think the worst of the worst hits in late September 2009.

Hey, what do you know, the one year anniversary of when millions lost nearly all of their 401(k)s when the market dropped out.  What a time to choose!  But I’m getting ahead of myself… lets hear about spring.  A time of green, fresh air, and everything coming back to life.  But the death of the stock market according to Wiegand.

During the spring of next year we see:

(1)  A second larger wave of residential housing mortgage failures; [Now, to be honest, I heard about this about two months ago.  Its a different kind of mortgage than the ARMs but it’s more “deadly” to the market  and banks.  Good thing we don’t have to pay a mortgage!]

(2)  The first big wave of auto loan failures and repossessions; [I heard about this one too about two months ago.  But if people can’t pay their mortgages, the next big ticket item is their car.  Good thing we don’t have to pay a car loan or lease!]

(3)  Over $40 billion in credit card defaults, smashing the bank lenders; [This is already happening, and again, another “big ticket” item are peoples credit cards.  Good thing we’ve never EVER used them.  If you can’t pay for it in cash, you don’t need it.]

(4)  The first wave of commercial mortgage failures and foreclosures on shopping malls, office buildings and other commercials; [This too is inevitable.  It is estimated that over 16,000 businesses will fail in the next year, leaving a lot of empty space in malls, strip malls, and business complexes.  Already, Circuit City has left quite a few leases up in the air, due to them filing bankruptcy.  Whose next?]

(5)  And finally, the grand smashing finale of CDS Credit Default Swaps originated with No margin money or down payments!  We heard today the total is 500 trillion!  I cannot even fathom that number.  These five converging train wrecks could take the Dow from a dead cat bounce of 10400-10800 back to 7250, or even 6600, or 5600.  [My other half and I have said, the Dow will crash out around 5000 in 2009.  So much for our stocks.]

But if you think the Dow at 5000-6000 is bad, you haven’t heard it all yet.  The above is just in the spring of 2009.  There’s how many months in the year, and how many seasons?

Then, in late September and early October, the New York, London, Tokyo and Asian markets take a monster crash.  how low is low and how bad can it get?  We think the Dow could end-up on November 1st, 2009 anywhere from 5,600 to a low of 3,000 or even 1,500. 

Ouch…. and how interesting that it’s just about the same time that the stock market crashed in 1929.  But the best.. err.. worst is yet to come.  And the capitalization isn’t my emphasis, it’s Wiegand’s.

Unemployment nationally in the USA is now touching 16%.  The officially posted number is somewhere near half of that.  By the fall of 2009, American REAL UNEMPLOYMENT WILL BE NEAR THE ALL TIME 1930’S DEPRESSION HIGH OF 25% UNEMPLOYED.  SADLY, THAT IS NOT THE WORST AS IT GETS MORE DIRE.  WE PREDICT, USA UNEMPLOYMENT REACHES 30-40%.  IN THE RUST BELT STATES OF MICHIGAN AND OHIO, WHILE 40% IS NOT UNREALISTIC.

Great… wonderful.  Buy your tents, Coleman stoves and sleeping bags now.  And maybe a nice little 9mm and shotgun.  Aww heck, splurge for a Desert Eagle.  Size is intimidating!  Make sure to not forget the ammo!  And begin to stockpile food, you might need it.  This might be the “new” money and a good bartering tool, as long as people don’t kill ya for it.  And LOTS of stocking up on toilet paper and um.. ah… guys look away on this one… feminine items.  And don’t forget things like cold medicine, aspirin, and topical antibiotics!But more realistically, stockpiling at least two months of food is a good way to make sure you have a food supply and “other” items if you lose your job or have to choose between food and a house payment.

The American federal government departments for food stamps and the job of providing welfare provisions will be overwhelmed.  This will be a Katrina event for the hungry citizens of the United States.  Urban areas will see skyrocketing crime and in parts of some cities, life could become totally uninhabitable.

The last report we’ve seen on those receiving food handouts and related welfare amounted to 11 million USA citizens with 700,000 children going hungry each day.  We suspect the true amount of those needing food help will rise to 35 million with an untold tragic number of them being little, defenseless children.  Governments remain in denial and are not prepared for this national emergency whatsoever.  As things worsen, food riots and others with violence aimed at the “have” are common.

Did I happen to say that I am also professionally trained in sword fighting?  And raised by a Father who taught me to shoot a .38 & .45 around the age of 8 and a shotgun at the age of around 10?  Who would have ever thunk it that I would need those skills in my personal life!  And a chick to boot!

And as for that stockpiled food, didn’t I just say it was going to be the new “money”?  Dollars will be worthless. 

The number of bank failures over the next three years will be in the thousands.   In addition, the US Dollar’s valuation could break recent lows near 70.00 on the index, dropping to 46.00 by 2011 or 2012.  Inflation or potentially hyperinflation is quite real as the Federal Reserve and US Treasury strain to print and circulate cash to prod our stalled economy.  It is simply not working even with the dramatically lower interest rates of late.

But to continue, Wiegand says just like in the Great Depression, families are “renting” out rooms, or “bunking” up to pool their money.

Consumers are broke and going broker.  Households of interrelated families are doubling and tripling up even with several employed members being under one roof.  Basic costs of rent, mortgage payments, health care, food, utilities and taxes are too much to bear on stagnant and in some cases falling wages.  In some areas of America, there are entire subdivisions of homes totally abandoned or existing with only a hand full of occupants.  The millions thrown at lenders for new mortgages are not getting through to buyers, as there are fewer of them.  We are witnessing a system breakdown.

Isn’t this already happening?  I recently blogged about Detroit and how many of the homes are already empty, and have been gutted for their copper and such.  And additionally, many who are behind on their mortgages, and said bank gets a bailout, refinances the mortgage, only to increase the payment by $300 to $500 a month, and also demands several thousand dollars just to stop the foreclosure within 30 days!

And states and cities will be broke also, so forget about getting any help from them, which is already happening.  Say bye bye to welfare and to schools.

Municipalities and states are sinking into a spending, debt-ridden morass.  It was reported today that 22 of 50 USA states are in serious budgetary trouble.  California is one of those in terrible condition and Michigan is already technically broke as many of her cities. [Don’t forget Ohio as the governor called Rahm and said he needed $5 billion!]  Detroit will file bankruptcy in 2009 and there will [be] many other surprises as well.  There will be a cascade of bond defaults and the outcome will cap the ability of these cities, states and countries to borrow ever more.

Hey, at least we are all in this together….. *smirk*  True worldwide Socialism!  YIPPIE!

The shining light through all of this is the faster we find the bottom the faster we can recover.  Sadly, the recovery process will take years.  Futures and commodities traders should continue to earn steady profits as the stock markets slide into oblivion for years.  We see no recovery until 2015.

Let see… Obama Jan 2009 – Jan 2013.  I wonder if he will run for re-election?

I find it interesting that there is no mention of the Big 3, or of a company such as Wal-Mart still being in business.  If Wal-Mart collapses, we are in trouble.

But wait.. according to the Russian nutjob, by 2010 we will be in a civil war and the United States will be split between Canada, China/Japan, Mexico and the EU with Alaska going back to Russia and Hawaii going to China/Japan so all of this won’t happen!

Of course there’s always Gerald Celente’s prediction of a total collapse of the economy and a revolution by 2012.

So well.. there’s my first post of the new year…… oh and… um… might be a little late… but have a happy and prosperous  New Year, while you still can? *shrug* *nervous smile*

PROTESTS WITH VIOLENCE AROUND THE WORLD

Antwerp, Belgium

Jewish groups have condemned a Belgian public broadcaster, VRT, for airing a show in which a standup comedian jokes about the Holocaust and the persecution of Jews.  Philippe Geubels, the comedian stated that the Holocaust cannot happen again because “Jews are much smarter now.”  “They have spread across the world.  Try rounding them up!  Most are in America so you cannot send them by train to Germany” to die in gas chambers.  “What are they going to do if there is a big gas leak in Antwerp?  Take the city to court for provocation?”  Additionally VRT came under criticism for a recent ad about a travel show focusing on Berlin.  It showed a drawing of Hitler as a male stripper giving the Nazi salute in front of a swastika flag.  That triggered a protest by teh Germany embassy, which called it “totally tasteless.”

Meanwhile, representatives of Hezbollah are scheduled to speak in the conference hall of the Belgian Parliament.  The Hezbollah representatives and the managers of the terrorist organization’s Al Manar TV will address a symposium on Palestine prisoners in Israeli jails.

The Arab European League (AEL) organized this demonstration.  After the protest disbanded the demonstrators marched towards Jewish neighborhoods, clashing with the police.  Car windows were broken, trams and buses were attacked.  Now many Jews are afraid to go to out into the streets fearing vandalism and violence.

Odenza, Denmark

A group of Arab youths opened fire Wednesday evening on a number of Israelis working at a mall in the Danish city of Odenza.  The Israelis, who were operating a stall in the shopping center, were lightly wounded in their legs.

But thanks to ANSWER, they have brought a nice little taste of Gaza City to the streets of America.

London, England

In London, and anti-Israel protestor snatched a policeman’s cap and set it on fire during a protest.  Some climbed israel’s embassy gates and were restrained by police.  Crowds chanted, “Palestine must be free from the river to the sea.”

And according to a person on YouTube by the name of “NiceIslamMedia101” which has an icon of a Hamas supporter, and a video that begins showing a Hamas flag, there will be additional protests in London nearly every day.  There is a link for more information which leads to the “Palestine Solidarity Campaign” website.

Tehran, Iran

Hundreds of Iranian radicals stormed the British compound in Tehran last night, replacing the Union flag with a Palestinian one and held the consulate for about an hour.  Additionally a “fire bomb” was thrown at the gates.  A hardline Iranian news agency said that protests against Britain and Egypt, whose embassy was also targeted, would continue.

One demonstrator told the AP TV service:  “We brought down the British flag and put up the flag of Palestine so we can send our message.”  He said the people of Gaza were being ignored by the world and referred to Britain as an “old sleeping fox”.

Stockholm, Sweden

Hundreds of demonstrators marched through the Swedish capital to protest against Israel, setting an Israeli flag on fire, and changing, “Israel, murderer, ” “Gaza solidarity,” and “Close the embassy.”  “Enough blood!  We’ve seen enough,” an organizer with the Swedish Islamic Association told the AFP.

PROTESTS IN THE UNITED STATES

Coming Soon To A Neighborhood Near You
And all this in the name of Allah [God].   Radical Islam is NOT a religion, it is a political doctrine of world domination masked as a religion.  The demonstrations as seen below, are what will get the United States into a state of Martial Law, especially if violence as seen in other countries begins.   Now remember, ANSWER is SUPPOSE to be against anti-Semitism.

Los Angeles, California

Pro-Palestine

About 100 people gathered outside the Federal Building in Westwood.  Another protest was underway outside the Israeli Consulate on Wilshire Blvd east of Beverly Hills, where Los Angeles police kept two groups of chanting protestors and supporters separate.

As part of the effort, Friday prayer meetings at more than 70 mosques throughout Southern CA will be dedicated to victims of the attacks.  There are an estimated 650,000 Muslims living in So. Cal.

Hussam Ayloush of the Council on American-Islamic Relations said “This is an illegal bombardment by Israel.  It is barbaric and it’s even more barbaric that it’s being done by the Bush Administration.”  “Gaza’s people are prisoners in their own land.  We depend on the help of the American people.”

Sacramento, California

Pro-Palestine

San Francisco, California

Pro-Palestine

This one looks CRAZY nutz.  Take a look at “At the back of the hill” to find out what this protest was really like, from a non-Palestinian point of view.

Washington, DC

Pro-Palestine

About 750 keffiyeh-wearing Palestine supporters chanted outside the US State Department.  Other reports state only close to 200 participated.  What is interesting to note, is that when it came 5pm, out of the 750, only about 30 chose to participate in prayer.  This was an ANSWER rally, that was organized by Brian Becker.  Also present was Mara Verheyden-Hillard from the National Lawyers’ Guild.

Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Pro-Palestine

Quotes that can be clearly heard and note, while people line street and street corners:

A Hijab is a “modest dress for women” that can include a veil to cover the face.   The following is yelled by a woman in a partial Hijab, obviously NOT showing ANY modest behavior.  ”You’re losers!  Your losers! Losers!  Your mother’s a whore!  Your mother’s a whore!  You’re losers.  Yea, fuck yourself,”  while carrying a sign that says “Nuke Israel”.  She additionally yelled, “Nuke Israel.  There is no Israel.”  Obviously she knows NOTHING about her claimed religion, for if she acted this way in Gaza, she would be at a minimum, stoned to death for her actions.

A group of men yelling and chanting at a car, “Go to Hell!  Go to Hell!”  Note, they are smiling the entire time with one man carrying a sign saying “Nuke Israel.  Go to Hell”.

Another woman, again wearing a partial burka:  “Go steal other lands!  Go!  Murderers!  Go back to the oven!  You need a big oven, that’s what you need!”

Eventually the crowd begins to get out of control and break through a police line.  The Pro-Palestinians cross the street, block the street and approach Israel supporters.  Finally, the police step in.  You can hear on pro-Israel supporter saying “They are so violent.”

Additional video via “Atlas Shrugs” of the same protest.

Tampa, Florida

Pro-Palestine

Atlanta, Georgia

Pro-Palestine

Kailua, Hawaii

Pro-Palestine

According to the AP, "A small group of placard-waving pro-Palestinian demonstrators gathered near U.S. President-elect Barack Obama’s vacation retreat in Hawaii.”

[Obviously these people don’t know that President Bush has sent $85 billion to the UN that is marked for aid to Gaza and the West Bank.]

Boston, Massachusetts [Park Plaza]

Pro-Israel & Pro-Palestine

Boston, Massachusetts

Pro-Palestinian

Pro-Israel

Dearborn, Michigan

Pro-Palestine

Approximately 5,000 people showed up for this protest with the streets lined for eight city blocks.  Some marchers chanted, “Gaza, Gaza dont’ cry, Palestine will never die” and “Israel is a terrorist state.”  Others chanted, in Arabic, “God is Great” and “a martyr is beloved of God.”

One protestor said that the responsibility for the Israeli attack lies with the US government, which “gives billions of dollars in military aide to Israel.”

Another protestor said he marched to protest, “the aggression and the use of excessive force” by Israel in Gaza.  “These are nothing but terrorist acts.”

One group of protestors carried a mock coffin decorated with pictures of dead and injured Arab children and labeled “U.S. Tax Dollars at Work” and “Victims of Zionism.”

Many spoke to at this protest said they had “hope that Obama would address the plight of the Palestinians.”

This protest was called by the Congress of Arab American Organizations.  Spokesman Osama Siblani said, “There is disappointment and anger in our community and we need to express it toward the current U.S. administration that has given a blank check to the Israelis.”

The Detroit area has the largest and most concentrated Arab American population in the country, with as many as 350,000 residents in Southeast Michigan of Arab ancestry.

New York City, New York
Pro-Palestine

Full Album 1 
Full Album 2
Full Album 3
Full Album 4

Over a thousand New Yorkers marched through midtown Manhattan, chanting and carrying signs and Palestinian flags on Tuesday.  This demonstration was brought together by the ANSWER Coalition, the Muslim American SOciety NY, Free Palestine Alliance, National Council of Arab Supporters, and Al-Awda NY and Al-Asalah NY, among others.

They all gathered in front of the Permanent Mission of Israel to the UN.  The spectators covered the sidewalk of the entire block at the corner of 42nd and 2nd Ave.  This was the third day in a row for Pro-Palestinian protesting in midtown.

Demonstrators chanted in both Arabic and English, waving Palestinian flags and carrying placards with phrases such as “Olmert, Olmert, What do you say?  How many kids have you killed today?” and “Viva viva Palestina.”

Pamphlets were handed out, including a petition to be sent to House Reps, which demands that the US condemn the war in the strongest terms, and that it uphold the Fourth Geneva Convention Relative to the Protection of Civilian Persons in Times of War.

Pro-Israel
Full Album

Across the street from 42nd and 2nd Ave was also a pro-Israel counter-protest.  Some insults were hurled at these demonstrators.  “You should be ashamed of yourself!  Stop the ethnic cleansing!” on man screamed.

Ocala, Florida

Pro-Palestine

Roughly two dozen demonstrators gathered Tuesday in from of the Lockheed Martin plant in Silver Springs Shores.  Lockheed Martin makes components for Hellfire missiles.  One woman states, “This is not over.  This is not going to be over for quite some time and this is just the beginning of another long, long, long piece of disturbance in the Middle East.”

One Lockheed employee, saw the protest, went home and got her two adult daughters.  They returned to the scene and counter-protested across the street.  The three shouted:  “Support our troops”, “God Bless America,” and “If you’re so proud of it, go back to Gaza.”

I agree with both women’s statements.

Dallas, Texas

Pro-Palestinian protestors converged at the Dealy Plaza in Dallas.

ADDITIONAL PROTESTS

Phoenix, Arizona

A QUESTION AND MY RANT ON

Now fair warning. I’ve NEVER been considered to be politically correct, however, I am known to speak my mind, fairly on many matters.  I am known to listen to both sides, in their entirety, and then go from there.  And I do not take race, religion, or sex into consideration.  I look at it from the point of view of ethics, simply right and wrong.  

In this case, is it right to kill people.  Well, that’s according to what you believe.  If you are a Christian, the only time it is “okay”, if you will, to kill another person, along with man’s law, is during War.  This also includes police actions when one must defend themselves.  However, according to other religions, those who do not believe in their religion, and will not convert, should die, all in the name of God.  To kill those who do not believe in what you believe, is considered to be a “Holy” act.  Yet, when those same people are attacked, and killed, then they are the ones calling it murder.  Does this EVEN make sense?  Can you say hypocrites?  Please, if you are Islamic, please explain that logic to me.  And please don’t say that it’s different because Israel is killing children.  Hamas is just as guilty of the same crime, if you want to put it that way.

But I have one small question for those who believe in Islam.  And remember, I am not Jewish, I am not Muslim, and I certainly wouldn’t be considered Christian.  But the question is, “Why are the Jews so bad?”  Tell me exactly why they are bad.  Who told you that the Jews are bad people?  What is the basis for that prior to say, 42 years ago?  What exactly did they do, more than 100 years ago, that was so bad?  If you can not answer this question, other than because people have told you that, and because your “religion” tells you that, then you are guilty of racism.  Welcome to the modern world, not a third world country.

And if you are not racist, then why are you supporting people who chose to vote in Hamas in their government, an organization that is considered a terrorist organization by nearly every country in the world, that has in their charter, the annihilation of Jews.  That ladies and gentlemen, is genocide.  Its not so nice when it comes back in your face does it?

Now if you are a follower of Islam, you aren’t going to like the way I’ve worded that question about Jews.  But I, who is not a follower of Islam, or a Jew, who is an outsider, is trying to understand BOTH points of view from BOTH sides.  You can take the attitude that I will never understand because I’m not a follower of Islam and will end up in Hell, or that it’s none of my business, well.. it is my business because this is happening on the streets of the country I live in. 

And hey, I’ve been on my way to Hell for a long time, so no biggie in that threat.  I never proclaim that I am perfect, and I will certainly go to Heaven.  You as a person do not have the right to judge whether I will go to Hell or Heaven, only God can make that judgment.  And if that is my destiny, then so be it.  Your words of a “devil” or whatever you call those who are not followers of Islam, and saying I should die because of my beliefs does not offend me.  Lemme put it this way, I don’t have a problem slinging around a few slabs of bacon in bacon grease coated hands which would do absolutely no physical damage to you.   However, is violence towards my attitude worth losing your 40some virgins and existing in Hell for eternity?

Because if anything, I propose a campaign for PEACE on the streets of the United States between Pro-Palestinians and those who are Pro-Israel.   Everyone is entitled to the right to assembly and the right to free speech thanks to our Constitution.  That is something that is NOT available in MOST Middle East countries, especially to women.  And general human rights and ethics entitles you to your own opinion, whether in my opinion, my neighbors opinion, or the person next to me’s opinion is different.  Again, an option that is NOT available in MOST Middle East countries. 

However, name calling, encroachment, and violence towards an opposite group because of religion and race are not.   That is a hate crime here in the United States.   I understand that the laws of Israel and of Gaza are different from here in the United States, but so should you.  You live in the United States, not in Israel and not in Gaza.  Please do NOT bring the Middle East conflict to OUR streets.  Isn’t the fighting and way of life there the reason you left and came to the United States to live free?

And if you are so proud of your land, and state that an injustice is being done, instead of bringing violence to our streets here in the United States, go back to Gaza and fight alongside Hamas against Israel.

What you need to realize is that yes, the United States gave aid to Israel however, in the past few days President Bush also gave $85 million in aide to the UN marked for Gaza and the West bank.  That’s more money per person for Gaza and the West Bank, than we as Americans got in our “stimulus” checks last year.  Our president gave Gaza and the West Bank more money per person for aid, that Congress gave us for economic help.

And if you tell me that I have to make a choice?  Then my choice is going to be those who break the law in the United States, according to our laws here, not the laws of Israel or of Gaza, should go to jail.  Obviously you don’t like the way we do things here in the United States, so go back to the Middle East where your life was so much better than here… and take your never ending war with you.  Oh wait, or is that why you came to the United States, so you could be free. 

HOW TO FIX THE PROBLEM

Here’s an easy one.  Israel stops firing.  If Hamas sends a rocket across the border, without provocation, then Israel has the right to send a Hellfire missile in.  If Hamas sends two rockets or mortars across the border, unprovoked, then Israel has the right to send two Hellfire missiles in.  Deal?  I’m sure there’s something in Islam that is similar to “An eye for an eye.”  You say that’s no end to the war?  Well, hasn’t Hamas been attacking Israel for about ohh.. what seven years and Palestine never complained while you cheered Hamas on?  And what about all the other years, basically since the beginning of time?

Because ultimately, the below picture is what all should be working for.  Palestinians and Jews side by side, for the same cause.  Peace between them both.

SOURCES FOR PICTURES:

Forget it.. can’t remember.  Too many to keep track of.  IF you are the original owner and wish for a picture(s) to be removed, please see the bottom of the page for correct copyright (DMCA) submission guidelines and contact information.

If a picture is your, and you will allow me to use it, but want recognition, contact me via the information below.

So below I have a rather detailed chart which took me nearly 4 hours to compile for all 50 states.  Each state is color coded to how they voted in the Nov 08 election.  Underneath each state is the difference between the national unemployment rate, and the state unemployment rate.  Below are the Aug, Sep and Oct unemployment rates.  I figured the 1 month percent change from Sep to Oct.

Next is the unemployment rate from 1 year ago, Oct 07.  Next to that I figured the 1 year percent change between Oct 07 and Oct 08.

After that is the unemployment rate from 2 years ago, Oct 06. After that I figured the 2 year percent change between Oct 06 and Oct 08.

And finally, because I have no life, I figured the 10 year unemployment average, from Oct 1989 to Sep 2008.  Again after that, I figured the percent change between the 10 year average and Oct 2008. Now the reason I do this is because historically some states do normally have a higher unemployment rate than others.  What is important to look at are the percent changes.

For example, looking at Arkansas their current unemployment rate is 5.4% with a 10 year change of +0.3%.  Now 5.4% isn’t bad since it’s below the current national average.  But looking at Alabama, with a unemployment rate of 5.6%, their 10 year change is +1.2%, a more drastic change.  This is why I believe you have to look at the big picture, and not just selected numbers.

And this is why I don’t agree with what Congress did with the extensions on the unemployment.  They set a number, 7% and any state at that number or above, gets that extra 13 week extension above the 7 week extension.  So it’s not really fair to those states who have a historically lower unemployment rate than the average rate but a higher change versus those states who historically have a higher rate of unemployment but a lower change.  And this goes back to my original belief that sometimes, you have to look at the bigger picture, than just a few months.  And this is where Congress has made their mistake and should have used percentage increases over a flat number.

But all in all, I don’t think it really matters, as by the end of the 1st Q 2009, all states will be over the 7% unemployment rate, with some as high as 12%, namely Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana and Illinois?  Why?  Because of the auto industry.  Even if they do get bailed out, there will still be an increase in layoffs in those areas.

Also, I believe that the three states that are the highest in foreclosure rates, which are California, Florida and Nevada, their unemployment levels will reach around 10% by the end of the 1st Q 2009 as their largest industries are construction and tourism.

And expect these numbers to get higher since Obama has stated that he does plan on creating 2.5 million new jobs however, that will not happen until 2011.  Two years is a long time for millions of people to be out of work.

The final interesting thing to note are the Midwest states.  In the Great Depression these states suffered the most, with the highest unemployment and had the most people leave for other states, mostly to California.  It’s an interesting comparison.  The states that had jobs during the Great D now have the highest unemployment in the country, and the states that had the lowest unemployment rates during the Great D now have the highest.  Many who lived in the “Dust Bowl” of the Midwest, most coming from Oklahoma, went to California for jobs working in the fields. 

California (D) currently has a 8.2% unemployment rate with a +2.4% over the 10 year average.  Currently Oklahoma (R) has an extremely low unemployment rate of 4.3% with NO CHANGE over the 10 year average.

Other Midwest states from which many migrated west during the Great D were Kansas (R) at 4.9% with a +0.6% change over the 10 year average.  Arkansas (R) currently at 5.4% with only a +0.3% change over the 10 year average.  Iowa (D) currently sits at 4.4%, with a +0.7% change over the 10 year average. Nebraska (R) currently sits at 3.6% with a +0.5% change over the 10 year average. It’s interesting how history is reversing itself.

The state with an unemployment rate that is actually LOWER than the 10 year average is New Mexico.  Currently their unemployment rate is 4.4%, with a reduction in unemployment over the 10 year average of –0.4% and they are running pretty consistent with the 1 month, 1 year and two year change of +0.4%, virtually unchanged in 2 years.  Why do I believe that there is a 10 year reduction when the rest of the United States are increased?  Illegal immigrants.  They are leaving in record numbers heading back to Mexico or leaving the state, thus there are more jobs for legal Americans.  Arizona however, does not show this trend with increased unemployment numbers across the board.  This is a “project” I plan on working on for the future, focusing on border areas in South Texas, South New Mexico, South Arizona and South California to see if the unemployment increases or decreases over time in relation with state and national average.

One other state that is doing quite well is Wyoming (R) at a 3.3% rate, with an increase over the 2 year unemployment of only +0.2%, and the 10 year average an actual reduction in unemployment of –0.6%.  South Dakota (R) and North Dakota (R) also well off for unemployment at only 3.3% (+0.2/10 year) and 3.4% (+0.1/10 year).

And another state with the least amount of change over all, with the best unemployment rate is West Virginia (R).  Their unemployment rate is 4.7%, with a 1 year change of +0.3%, a 2 year change of nothing, and a change that is actually a lowered unemployment on the 10 year average of –0.1%.  This however, will change if Obama decides to shut down the coal industry with stricter standards for the environment.  If this does happen, expect that number to rapidly increase to at least 15%,if not higher, within a very short time.

The worst states?  Rhode Island (D) leads them all at 9.3%, +0.5% for 1 month, +4.2% for 1 year, +4.3% for 2 year and 10 year.  And Michigan (D), of course.  Historically, over a 10 year period, their unemployment rate averaged 6.1%, much higher than the rest of the country.  They currently do have a 9.3% unemployment rate however, over a 1 year period, their unemployment rate has risen –1.8%, very similar to many other states.  Over a 2 year period, +2.2%.  And over 10 year, +3.2%.  So yes on average they are higher than other states however, they are not quite as drastic of a change as Florida and Rhode Island.  But they are bad, yes, in the top 5.

States that depend on tourism as their main industry are suffering horribly.  California (D) is at 8.2% with a +2.4%/10 year change.  Nevada (D) is at 7.6% with a +2.7%/10 year change.  And Florida (D) at 7.0% with a +3.5%/10 year change.  South Carolina (R) is at 8.0% with a +2.3%/10 year average.  Hawaii (D) however is sitting at 4.5% with only a +0.9%/10 year avg.

And it would seem that New York (D) would have the worst unemployment rates with large increases due to Wall Street.  This doesn’t seem to be the case.  Their rate is 5.7%, below the national average, with a 1 month change of –0.1%, which is a decrease in unemployment from 5.6%.  1 year change sits at +1.1%, 2 year at +1.4% and only +0.5% over the 10 year average.  So why is the governor talking about raising sales tax 7-15%?

Remember in all of this, the National unemployment rate for October 2008 was 6.5%.  As a comparison, after the 1929 Stock Market Crash in October 1929, the national unemployment rate went from 3.2% (1929) to 8.7%(1930) a +5.5% increase.  Rhode Island  at 9.3% is past this rate however, they are a bit of a ways from that drastic of an increase currently sitting at a +4.2% for one year.  In the following year, 1931 the national unemployment rate went to 15.9%.  And in 1932, the national unemployment rate went to 23.6%.

Anyone care to comment?  *tap, tap*  Is there anybody out there?  [Sorry, I’ve been listening to entirely too much Pink Floyd and Queensrÿche today.]  BTW, what you see below you will not find anywhere else in this format so if you decide to borrow, link back okie?  Four hours of my time is quite a bit of time.  Thanks.

The unemployment numbers come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics with the Oct numbers being preliminary.  As for the election results, I used Electoral-vote.com.  And remember, I am not a Democrat and I am not Republican.  I am Independent.