Misery Index

A Recession is “officially” considered two consecutive quarters (six months) of negative growth in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).  This is highly debatable and depends really upon who is talking.  It also may take into other factors such as increasing unemployment levels, increasing inflation, house prices declining, the stock market dropping and the value of the dollar dropping.

The Gross Domestic Product is a number that is defined as the total market value of all final goods and services within a country in a given period of time.  To make a long story short;

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports – imports)

Consumption is how much one buys.
Gross Investment is the cost of investing.
Government Spending is how much the government is spending.
And exports are how many goods or commodities a country is sending outside the country and imports is how many goods or commodities a country is receiving from outside the country. 

A Depression is suppose to be when the GDP drops over 10%, presumed in one quarter.  I could be wrong about this, but who wants to use the “Big D” word?

UNITED STATES AND RECESSION

Technically, the United States is in a recession if you go by the two quarters of negative GDP growth, but I haven’t heard any “official” announcement. 

GDP: 

And one other thought to ponder.  If it were not for the government bailing out the banks, and now companies like American Express where would we be?  It’s not so much to think about then being bailed out, its more of the point that if they weren’t, they would be gone.

Additionally, the US automakers are now asking the government for money.  And in a new report, which I will be blogging about next, even retail outlets are now asking the government for money, such as JCPennys.  Additionally, retail outlets are going out of business.  Circuit City has closed 155 stores.  Linens and Things are gone.  Banks have been failing, 19 so far this year alone.  States are running out of money.  I’ve seen and read about all of these things happening, but not all at one time.  What is it going to take before someone says the “R” word for the United States?

A FEW MORE CHARTS FOR YOU TO GANDER AT

I have to honestly say, I’ve never seen the numbers quite like this.. all at one time.  Something happened in June 2008 to cause all this mess.  Because if you look at the numbers, by month, major jumps across the board began in June 2008.  If you look by quarters, jumps began in 2nd Q, 2008 with both continuing in July, 2008. 

All I can remember happening is that gas prices spiked to over $4.00 a gallon, thus causing transportation prices to increase, causing the price of goods to increase.    I also remember grocery prices seemed to jump about 30-40% around that time.  I don’t recall any “financial” failures at that time.  Anyone else have any ideas?

UNEMPLOYMENT

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX

The average price of consumer goods and services purchased by households.  To understand the numbers, the Bureau of Labor Statistics based the number 100 on an average of 1982 - 1984 prices.  This is called the base.  The base CPI is changed every so often with the last time being in 1967.  Basically this is so that you don’t notice that there has been a 1000%+ inflation since the start of this measure, which I will show via the inflation graph.  The other thing to note is that if the CPI goes up, that means things cost more to purchase and respectively, if it goes down, then something costs less to purchase.

So how to understand the number.  Lets say an item cost $1.00 on average between 1982-1984.  If today, in 2008 that same item costs $1.85 then the index would be at 185.  In the most current data the Sept, 2008 CPI is 218.78.  That means a 118.78% inflation from 1982 prices.  In other words, what on average cost $1.00 on average between 1982-1984 now costs $2.18

CPI IS NOT the same thing as Inflation.

INFLATION

So now that one understands what the CPI is, lets look at what inflation is. Inflation is simply “an increase in the price you pay for goods.”  In other words, a decline in the purchasing power of your money.  It is more like a “percent” whereas CPI is a “measure”.

For example, today $1.00 in 1984 has the same buying power as $2.11 in 2008.
If you compare this number $2.11 to the CPI number which is $2.18, you see they are close enough to be nearly the same.
CPI: 218.78 compared to the 1984 base.
Buying Power: $1.00 (1984) = $2.18 (2008) which is a CPI of 218.00 using the 1982-1984 base.
Which means what cost $1.00 in 1984 would cost you $2.18 today.

  So when you see the price of something from the Great Depression and say “WOW that is CHEAP!”  Its not quite accurate. 
Buying Power:  $1.00 (1933) = $16.83 which is a CPI of 1683.
This also means what cost $1.00 in 1933 would cost you $16.83 today.

For example, 1 dozen eggs in 1933 cost $0.15.  Now at first glace that is REALLY cheap.  But when you add in inflation, that same dozen eggs would be equal to $2.40 in 2008.  And the price of eggs today,not on sale does cost around $2.00, so in fact, prices were MORE expensive during the Great Depression.  I will get more into this comparison at a later date on a separate post.

But the thing to remember from the graph, is inflation is increasing, at a rather fast rate compared to two years ago and one year ago.

PERSONAL SAVINGS

Personal Savings is just what it means.  It means how much money we are NOT spending.

CONSUMER SPENDING
aka Personal Consumption Expenditures

This one for some reason, I’m having a hard time finding the exact numbers for however, here’s a graph from the BEA with the August data missing for some reason.  This shows that we are not spending the money we are making.

BALANCE OF TRADE

The balance of trade is the difference between the monetary value of exports and imports.  A negative balance of trade is known as a trade gap, and means more is being imported than being exported.  We as a nation have been importing more goods for a considerable amount of time, versus the amount of goods we export.  Thus if consumer spending goes down in the United States, it effects the rest of the world.

The State of Hawaii considers a “Certificate of Live Birth” a secondary source of identification for the purpose of establishing Hawaiian ancestry.  This is the document that can be seen on the “Fight the Smears'” website.  It is not a “Birth Certificate.”  Thus, the claim alleges that the “Certificate of Live Birth” posted by the Obama campaign cannot be viewed as authoritative, the case alleges since it does not show the hospital of birth, or a doctor’s signature.  [NOTE:  A high resolution scan of the document can be found here and here.

The case also raises the circumstances of Obama’s time during his youth in Indonesia, where he was listed as having Indonesian citizenship.  Indonesia does not allow dual citizenship, raising the possibility of Obama’s mother having given up his U.S. citizenship.  Any subsequent U.S. citizenship then, the case claims, would be “naturalized",” not “natural-born.”

The petition is a request for the Superior Court of California in Sacramento County to issue a peremptory writ barring Secretary of State Debra Bowen “from both certifying to the governor the names of the California Electors, and from transmitting to each presidential Elector a Certificate of Election, until such documentary proof is produced and verified showing that Senator Obama is a ‘natural born’ citizen of the United States and does not hold citizenship of Indonesia, Kenya or Great Britain.” 

The petition states that the California secretary of state should refuse to allow the state’s 55 Electoral College votes to be cast in the 2008 presidential election until President-elect Barack Obama verifies his eligibility to hold the office, and issue a writ barring California’s electors from signing the Certificate of Vote until documentary proof is produced.

“Should Senator Obama be discovered, after he takes office, to be ineligible for the Office of President of the United States of America and, thereby, his election declared void, Petitioners, as well as other Americans, will suffer irreparable harm in that (a) usurper will be sitting as the President of the United States, and none of the treaties, laws, or executive orders signed by him will be valid or legal,” the action challenges.

Citing the constitutional requirement that a president be a “natural born” citizen, the case discusses other state and federal court cases regarding “aspects of lost or dual citizenship concerning Senator Obama.  Those challenges, in and of themselves, demonstrate Petitioners’ argument that reasonable doubt exists as to the eligibility of the Democratic Party’s nominee for President,” the case said.

“There is a reasonable and common expectation by the voters that to qualify for the ballot, the individuals running for office must meet minimum qualifications as outlined in the federal and state Constitutions and statutes, and that compliance with those minimum qualifications has been confirmed by the officials overseeing the election process.”

“Since [the Secretary of State, SOS] has, as its core, the mission of certifying and establishing the validity of the election process, this writ seeks a Court Order barring SOS from certifying the California Electors until documentary proof that Senator Obama is a ‘natural born’ citizen of the United State of American is received by her.”

“This proof could include items such as his original birth certificate, showing the name of the hospital and the name and the signature of the doctor, all of his passports with immigration stamps, and verification from the governments where the candidate has resided, verifying that he did not, and does not, hold citizenship of these countries, and any other documents that certify an individual’s citizenship and/or qualification for office.

“To this date, in this regard, SOS has not carried out that fundamental duty.”

In response to questions about why the suit was being filed, Keys commented:

“I and others are concerned that this issue be properly investigated and decided before Senator Obama takes office.  Otherwise there will be a serious doubt as to the legitimacy of his tenure.  This doubt would also affect the respect people have for the Constitution as the supreme law of the land.  I hope the issue can be quickly clarified so that the new President can take office under no shadow of doubt.  This will be good for him and for the nation.”

INTERESTING FIND

On the “Fight The Smears” website, that was designed to set the “record straight” about Obama.  However, FactCheck.org left a note stating:

“When Barack Obama Jr. was born on Aug. 4, 1961, in Honolulu, Kenya was a British colony, still part of the United Kingdom’s dwindling empire.  As a Kenyan native, Barack Obama Sr. was a British subject whose citizenship status was governed by The British Nationality Act of 1948.  That same act governed the status of Obama Sr.’s children.

Since Sen. Obama has neither renounced his U.S. citizenship nor sworn an oath of allegiance to Kenya, his Kenyan citizenship automatically expired on Aug. 4, 1982.”

If this is true, then Obama is not a natural-born citizen.

But yet later, FactCheck.org stated that the “certificate of live birth” to be valid.  The thing to remember here is that yes, the “certificate of live birth” may be valid however, under Hawaii Revised Statute 338-178, Obama could have been born in Kenya, and been brought back to Hawaii and received this document.  Additionally at that time in Hawaii, if a child was born outside a hospital, the family would have 30 days to apply for a birth certificate.

What makes this important is Obama’s grandmother in Kenya who has stated, and can be heard in the video below during a phone call from the Bishop of Anabaptists Churches of North America, Ron McRae, that Obama was born in Kenya.

Ron McRae: … I would like to see his actual birthplace when I, when I come to Kenya in December.  Uh, was she present when he was, was she present when he was born in Kenya?

Translator to Sarah Obama:  Alikuma zalima Obama (unintelligible)

Kewli Shuhubia:  He is asking her, he wants to know something was ah she present when he was born?

Translator:  Yes.  She says “Yes she was!  She was present when Obama was born.”

Ron McRae:  Okay.

OTHER THOUGHTS

In Obama’s book The Audacity of Hope, pg. 204, Obama states he lived in Indonesia for five years.

“During the five years that we would live with my stepfather in Indonesia…….”

At that time, only Indonesian citizens were allowed to enroll in public school.  If Obama’s citizenship was switched to Indonesian, and later switched back, he would then be referenced as a “naturalized” citizen, and not an “natural born” and thus, is not eligible for president.

THOUGHTS TO PONDER

I believe all the above facts themselves warrant an investigation into whether Obama is infact a natural born citizen.  It’s a simple thing.  Produce the original “Birth Certificate” and all is done instead of fueling the fires of doubt against him and wasting taxpayers money in courts.  How can one believe in anyone, if they won’t be truthful, or attempt to gain trust?  Or again, is that what he wants, to divide this nation into believers and non-believers?  Just thoughts to ponder……

PREVIOUS POSTS:

• Obama’s Exemption From Proving He Is A Legal Natural Born Citizen [Where’s the birth certificate?]  (10/29)

SOURCES:

• World Net Daily
• World Net Daily
• Superior Court of California, County of Sacramento, Case Number:  2008-80000096
• Canada Free Press
• America’s Independent Party National Committee